I think I’m going to toot my own horn a bit now. But it isn’t just vanity, because it actually is more about you… more on that at the bottom of the post.

If you’ve been reading this blog recently regarding the Cyprus crisis, you’ll remember that from the get go I stated that a vast amount of the money has left the country before the system was shut down. This is now proving to be correct.

The result of the “deal” was also as I predicted: Utter confusion in the European bureaucratic ranks. The fact is that no one has any idea (several days after the deal has been struck) how much money is left over in the Cypriot banking system.

The guesses regarding the levy on accounts holding in excess of 100 000 euros has gone like this: First it was between a 30%-70% levy (a pretty broad range) then it was definitely 30%, yesterday it was 40%, now it’s being quoted at 50%.

There are a lot of sweaty palms in Brussles tonight ladies and gentlemen, because the Eurocrats will be praying to the great god of supranational deities that they’ll have enough moolah in the Cypriot system to come up with the readies, otherwise this thing is going to kick off again.

My feeling is even if they don’t really have the needed 5.8 billion euros in the Cypriot system, they will actually report that they have the 5.8 billion euros. Put in plain English: The EU will spin it anyway they want it.

But back to tooting my own horn and stroking my own ego. I didn’t predict these things because I have some inside information or because I am smaaarter than the average bear. It wasn’t a prediction, it was common knowledge for chaps like me, who do the things we do, to earn the money we earn, so that we can walk about saying my other Maserati is a Ferrari.

We private bankers are often poked fun of for being lazy and not really doing much, but when financial calamity cometh, it’s guys like me you want taking care of your hard earned. This goes back to my earlier post on a private banker’s primary duty to his client.

So now after telling you, my dear readers, what a thoroughly brilliant fellow I am, let’s talk about you, because it is you who I am grateful for. I truly appreciate that this blog and my twitter feed has as its readers a vast array of people from different backgrounds. Students, entrepreneurs, top international journalists, a-list celebrities, analysts, traders, politicians, normal everyday working folk they are all here. Which is exactly what I wanted. And this has all happened in just a couple of months. Clearly people have been interested.

The point of this site is to give everyone an opportunity to see inside the very secretive world of private banking (the clue is in the name. Starts with “P” ends in “E” has “rivat” in the middle).

The thing that makes it so heart warming is that I blog anonymously, which means the only way I can gain your respect, attention and continued readership is by providing you with quality content that you find useful.

In the past week my payback for your support has been the ability to give you a few hours to several days notice of pertinent information that has later become headline news. I won’t always get it right, but in a financial crisis I’m pretty darn good. That’s what I get paid for.

So thanks you for reading my posts this far. There is much more to come and as you now know. You read it here first that there would be a massive exodus of money and the EU would be caught out by it.

Let’s see if we can come up with some other gems along the way.

So there’s a deal between the EU and Cyprus, except there isn’t . What was achieved and then marketed as a deal was nothing but a media charade to feed the news cycle and give some kind of semblance of achievement so that the ECB deadline could be met. That’s all.

Allow me to explain.

According to the “deal” all accounts under 100k will be spared (great, good news) everything above that will be taxed or raided or plundered or re-allocated or whatever you want to call it.

So how much will the tax be you ask. I asked the same. The thing is no one knows. It’ll just be something. Yes something.

So a deal has been done in which it has been agreed that deposits above 100 000 euros will be taxed at a rate… eeerm well they haven’t agreed to that yet.

Doesn’t sound like much of a deal does it? What has been agreed then?

Well, it has been agreed that the Cypriot parliament won’t be allowed to vote on it again. Yep. The country’s own legislators won’t be allowed to vote on matters that affect the country. In other words, the Cypriots have given up sovereignty.

When the Cypriot parliament first threw out the deposit tax proposal I joked on Twitter that the EU would just make them vote again until they got it “right”. It seems we have now dispensed with such formalities as voting by democratically elected representatives and just decided to take power away from them in case they make a pig’s ear of the EU’s plans. Taking away sovereignty seems to save sooooo much more time, eh?

So to recap: The EU has agreed that the Cypriots can’t be trusted to rule themselves and have taken away their sovereignty and that all deposits under 100k won’t be taxed. How the 5.8 billion euros the Cypriots need to come up with will be collected weeeeelll. Let’s not worry about such trifle details now.

Since the EU won’t worry about how to get the money together let the Banker’s Umbrella worry about it instead.

Let’s start with some hard data. It has been reported that Cyprus has a total of around 370 000 bank accounts of which 10 000 are foreign accounts (the number seems small to me). There have also been reports that the amount of the “tax” on these accounts will be between 30-70%. What does that tell you?

It tells you that nobody in Cyprus or the EU has any kind of clue whatsoever about how much money is in the Cypriot banking system. That’s what it tells you.

Let’s do some basic math. We know Cyprus needs to raise 5.8 billion euros. If the bank levy is 30% it would mean there are deposits of 19.33 billion euros (5.8bil/30%) if the levy will be 70% it would mean there are deposits of 8.28 billion euros.

Think about that for a moment. In effect that tells you that the EU and the Cypriots think there’s somewhere between 8 and 19 billion in the system that they can tap. That’s a pretty damn massive ball park. Is it not?

This goes to prove that no one has any idea of how the money can be raised.

I have stated it before on this blog and in my tweets that I am convinced a vast amount of the big deposits have been transferred into non-cash holdings before the banks closed in Cyprus. Either as cash transfers out of the country or into assets that are not in scope of the levy such as German or US government bonds.

Bonds are held in segregated accounts from the bank’s balance sheet. If those are to be got at to raise the 5.8 billion, then that would brake another holy banking edict. That would mean that none of your assets, cash bonds, gold, house, car, anything would be safe from the plundering by an extra-governmental power (in this case the EU).

We live in amazing times ladies and gentlemen and I truly believe the magnitude of these changes are too much for many to begin to fathom. I know I am having plenty of trouble doing it.

Let me end by saying. This s*^t still ain’t over.

So you’ve all seen the news. It’s best that I just give you my take on the possible outcomes. Below you can find an updated version of yesterday’s calculations (see last post for those) of the cost to the average Cypriot citizen.

I have updated the population data (thanks to @Frank_McG) and in addition I have taken into account wealthy Cypriots (in excess of EUR 100k holdings). I still stress that while these are professional estimates, they are just that, estimates.

For anyone who wants more details of my guesstimates, feel free to contact me or email me. Happy to explain.

So what is going to happen in Cyprus?

I tweeted yesterday that “This will turn into a) a farce b) a revolution c) a farce of a revolution”

I still stand by this. Make no mistake, these are extremely dangerous times. What the EU did was set off a potential powder keg. If not managed properly, this can gain momentum and bad things will happen. As in people will get hurt.

The thing about politics and public opinion is that when things gain momentum they are hard to contain. Nothing fuels the fire of unrest more than uncertainty and the Cyprus situation is full of uncertainty.

It hasn’t helped matters that once the (colossally bad) decision was made about the “tax” on deposits, then just a few hours later everyone started to back track.

The bank “holiday” has now been extended to Thursday. Anyone feeling relaxed and on holiday now? No. I didn’t think so. This decision to keep banks closed in Cyprus only adds fuel to the fire of uncertainty.

Also there is uncertainty about what the “tax” will be. There are all kinds of rumours doing the rounds about a 15% tax on deposits above EUR 500k, and those under EUR 100k would be exempt.

Trust me, the banker, on this guess: In a tiny country with systemic corruption deposits in excess of EUR 500k have mostly been transferred to assets that are not in scope of the new “tax”.

I have also seen rumours about a threshold of EUR 20k, in which those with under would be exempt from the tax. (Interesting that the number coincides with my yesterday’s estimate of average Cypriot savings, perhaps someone in the Cypriot government has been reading this blog).

From a purely cynical and political point of view this would make the most sense. It would be a divide and conquer tactic: Those with under EUR 20k would give a huge sigh of relief and those with above would be offended, but anyone with under EUR 20k would look at those with above as being “rich” and there wouldn’t be such support for them. It might very possibly calm things down.

Here are the new calculations as you can see, even after revisions the numbers do not change much and are pretty much in line with my originals. 

I had a Norwegian colleague once. He was called Bjorn, but we called him Holgar the Handsome.

Big chap he was, tall as a pine tree and fairly chunky. I’m sure his mother Astrid, would’ve said he was big boned, but then again, he did come from strong viking stock, so in his village all the chaps were probably his size.

Holgar had a funny kind of walk. He would lean forward at the waist, drag one foot behind him until it caught up with his upper body and then kind of just plonk it down so it registered on the Richter scale a bit, and then repeat the process with the other foot and thus propel himself forward like some giant Godzilla with a limp. You definitely felt Holgar coming.

Holgar had one of those expressions on his face that made him look as if he was lost in thought somewhere, just without the thoughts, if you see what I mean: Eyes glazed, mouth slightly open. Basically when you looked at him you expected drool.

If someone had placed a viking helmet on Holgar’s noggin and put a battle-axe in his hands, upon first sight of his approach, I can guarantee you would have been locking up your wives and daughters a bit sharpish.

Speaking of his hands, Holgar had giant ones, like tennis racquets. You could just imagine his forefather getting off the long boat after crossing the Atlantic, arriving in America and saying:

“I’ve had a rotten crossing, I’m long-boat lagged, I lost my luggage when we stopped off in Ireland, the food was terrible and to top it off they sat me next to Ingmar for the whole damn trip, he never stopped yapping and his rowing technique was off.

Now that I’m here I got this funny looking little native chap with bird feathers on his head, wearing make-up, jumping up and down, waving an axe at me the size of my butter knife… and what is that incessant high-pitched yoddling thing he’s doing? It’s giving me a migraine. I don’t know if I should just smack ‘Chief Asking for an Nordic Ass Whoopin’ with my ginormous hand (and when he eventually wakes up sometime next week, he’ll discover that I have burned down his tent and impregnated his wife). Or should I just chop his head off with my battle-axe? Decisions, decisions.”

So as you can tell Holgar was a pretty formidable looking fellow.

But you see, the thing about Holgar was that if you sat down with him for two minutes, you were immediately charmed. He was the most jovial and pleasant chap you could ever hope to meet. And he was smart about finance, razor sharp smart. Basically that’s the Norwegians for you: A wonderful bunch of big people who are pretty nifty in the grey matter department. Must be all the fish they eat. Talking of which.

The Norwegians rule the world in salmon fishing and farming. They have a total of seven salmon related companies listed on the Norwegian stock exchange. The thing about these companies is that they are very reasonably valued, the highest valued (Marine Harvest) trades at a forward PE of 13 and the cheapest (Salmar) trades at a forward PE of a little under seven.

What's jolly wonderful about them is that when things are going swimmingly, they like to dish out a hefty dividend. Most of the firms are estimated to pay out in excess of a 5 % dividend. Lovely that. So from a traditional investor's point of view, they really do look rather tasty:

-       Easy to understand business (People have to eat)

-       Good fundamentals

-       Shareholder friendly

But there are caveats here. Firstly their business is linked to the price of salmon (hardly surprising that). If the price of salmon drops, it doesn’t matter how well run the business is, the share price is going to sink. Currently though things look rather nice, because salmon prices are holding up well and for the first half of 2013 it is estimated that salmon availability will be rather tight, which should support the overall price.

How can I not mention salmon without talking about horsemeat. The effects of the horse meat scandal are sure to support the salmon industry.

There is one thing you have to keep in mind when investing in the Norwegian stock market: It is an insider market. I know you aren’t supposed to say this aloud and people tend to get annoyed when someone says this, but I will say it, because it is so. 

Because it is an insiders market, you invest at the locals pleasure, meaning you well get royally shafted every now and then unless you protect the downside. 

As mentioned before the Norwegians are generally a very hospitable and lovely bunch but every now and then their Viking heritage rears its head and they decide to rape and pillage their foreign investors. The result is normally an almighty drop in share prices. Going down 50% is perfectly normal while the locals nibble on salmon bread on rye and wash it down with aqvavit while taking your money and watching you squirm.

You have been warned.

So let me set the parameters straight. This is a post about how to get your first job in private banking as a private banker. Your job title might be Junior Private Banker or Assistant Private Banker or Relationship Manager. Whatever the title, we are talking about a job that is client facing; in other words, what I am writing about here isn’t geared to those who want to be analysts or fund managers (although those skills are important for a private banker). This is purely how you become one of those chaps or chappettes who look the client in the eye and say, “this is good, put a million in this,” and then face the consequences. That is the private banker job description.

Education

It can be done without a college degree, but some people win on the lottery as well. So get yourself into college or university pronto. If nothing else, at least you get to drink copious amounts of alcohol and go out partying every other night expecting to get your leg over, only to end up falling asleep on a park bench. It’s all good practice in the grand scheme of things, because wining and dining is a part of private banking, so practicing your partying skills will help. (Don’t mention that too much in the job interview though.)

Basically, you need to have the degree to get an interview. If you’ve studied finance—brilliant. I did finance, but only because I didn’t get in to study history. But if you’ve done history, English, archeology, biology or whatever, no probs. The main thing is that these days you need a college degree.


Consistency

This is it. If there is one thing that separates the whatsimies from the thingimies, it is this. Consistency will get you through in the end, simply because it is the one single obstacle that most applicants fail to get over. The good news is that most students are lazy so and so’s. Sue me for saying it; throw water bombs at me. I don’t care. I love the youth. I want nothing but the best for students, but in general, they can’t be arsed to do much. So, if you have just a tad more get up and go than your peers, then you are off to a great start. If you keep being consistent, I guarantee you (98 and three quarter percent) that you’ll succeed.

This means you start now. If you are in your first year at uni, even better, start now. In your last year, so what, yes, you are a little late, but start now. Just graduated? You are late, but start now. Sitting on your backside six months after graduating, eating pot noodles and drinking lager … you got it, start now!

Prepare your CV and start sending it out. When you get a rejection, send a thank-you note. Yes, send a thank-you note/email for being rejected (because rejected you will be, countless times), asking politely if there is anything in particular that you could work on in the future to improve your chances of being employed by the firm in question.

Most of the time, you won’t get an answer, but if and when you do, send a reply (again, thanking them), asking that if you work on their recommendation, could you send your updated application to them again in three months’ time. If they say “yes,” then you write that in your calendar for three months’ time and send it. Don’t forget!

If they don’t answer at all, send it in three months anyway. Something to the tune of:

“Dear Head Hiring Honcho,

You were kind enough to advise me three months ago by email on steps I should take to improve my chances of being employed … so on and so forth. Here’s my new application, grovel, grovel, gimme a job!” 

Then when you get rejected again, you thank them and go through the same process. I guarantee that a year or two of this while at uni and, at the end of it, you’ll have a job. Politeness and persistence are a powerful combination. What’s more, the people who recognise it and take note of it tend to be top professionals, so you’ll probably end up working for a better than average bank.


The one skill you’ll need

Private banking is a relationship management business. Let me repeat that, private banking is a relationship management business. Because private banking is a relationship management business, it is important to bear in mind that, in a relationship management business, managing relationships is key to good relationship management. Thank you for understanding the importance of relationship management within the relationship-management-driven-private-banking business model.

Did you get that? Read it again just to be sure.

What this in effect means is the ability to sell ideas to your clients. Looking them in the eye and saying, “Yes, this is what you need, do this.”

You need to put effort into getting a job in a bank first. You aren’t going to get straight into private banking unless you can turn to the help of Rupert and Hugo.

Retail banking is the best way in, but even that can be hard. Apply, apply, apply, and be consistent and follow the above plan of being polite and asking to contact again in a few months time. This way you build a relationship.

If you can’t get a job in a bank, fret not, get a job in anything involving sales. I don’t care if it’s working at the local off-licence (liquor store to my American readers) or selling mobile phones. Sales skills are what will hone your relationship management abilities and banks love it if you can sell. Whatever sales job you get, do it well, and do one thing better than anyone else and a little different. Basically, this means sell the bejeebers out of a single product or products.

Let me give you an example:

Let’s say you are working at the off-licence. If someone buys a bottle of gin, you ask them if they like martinis. If they say yes, sell them a bottle of Noilly Pratt and a packet of olives. If they say no, tell them tonic is three for the price of one, and how’s about it? And then sell them a few lemons on top of that. Don’t have lemons in your offie? Well, there you go, you should.

Offies sell loads of beer, so have some nuts on the counter that customers can have a nibble, while you (slowly) tally up their purchases and ask them:

“Would you like to taste my salty nuts?”

That should get their attention. Some will, some won’t, but some of those that will taste them are going to buy some of them nuts. Well done, you sales genius you!

You can actually calculate percentage wise how much you are selling extra per purchase. Make a note of it. Now put that in your application and talk it up a storm in the interview. How you increased sales by X percent. Trust me, people are going to be impressed with your ingenuity, and the fact that you can sell, sell, sell. The job is yours—sign there on the dotted line.


Job interview

Not too much to say about this. Once you are in that room, you should have a real chance at the job; otherwise, you wouldn’t be invited. You need to dazzle them with your personality. So what your mum and dad and life haven’t taught you by now, I can’t really help with, but here are a few simple yet deal-breaking logistical things to remember:

Dress well. Ladies, not much I can tell you here. I only dress in women’s clothing on weekends in front of the mirror when the wife’s at the bingo, so my expertise on that front is limited. My advice is to just look smart and conservative, and hold the perfume. Seriously, ladies, hold the perfume.

As for the blokes, make sure your trousers are pressed, and preferably wear a white or a light blue shirt. No loud ties. Polish your shoes. Comb your hair, brush your teeth and rinse with mouthwash.

Oh and axe the Axe. I know the girls like it, and it has given you a reputation as the Cool Robot of Luurve, but recruiters won’t like it. Seriously though, no strong scents, people hate that, just normal deodorant. For the interview, it’s safer to go without aftershave. Wash your hands, cut your nails and clean under your fingernails. By the way, this is the part of the article where I am serious and not joking at all. If the above aren’t in order, you ain’t getting the job. If you smoke, do it half an hour before the interview, no less. Otherwise, you will stink. 


LinkedIn

Get on it now. LinkedIn is where all the recruiters go hunting, it is where everyone in the business goes to check out the talent. All the hip kids are there.

LinkedIn is also a very strong social media, meaning that if there are pictures of you on the Internet, throwing up in Ibiza, dressed as a WWII German female officer wearing suspenders and a garter belt, and you are a 220 lbs geezer from Burnley, called Dave, in all likelihood, your profile in LinkedIn is what will come up before your holiday snaps when someone is Googling your name.

Basically, LinkedIn allows you to control the professional image of yourself and promote yourself in the way you want to. Use it wisely. It is a subject that a book could be written about, so you might as well get started now. My only advice is that it is not Facebook. Don’t treat it as such. Use sparingly and professionally. Watch your language and your opinions.


Conclusion

I barely scratched the surface here, but I sincerely hope this helps you. The greatest single moment of feeling (I stress the word moment) in life is when you get that first “dream” job. Yes, it is better than losing your virginity, because that tends to be a bit of a letdown until you get your mojo trained properly. Yes, it is even better than the moment you become a parent, because at that moment it is too difficult to comprehend the monumental responsibility and utter joy and love of the years ahead.

But as for that job you have dreamed about, when you’ve done the interview and the whole process—for the days, maybe weeks that you have been waiting for the call—that call will start your whole career. All your dreams, the years of work you’ve put in and now it all has the possibility of being fulfilled, and you will be setting off on that great adventure in life …

I wish that single moment of elation on everyone once in their life, when they put down the phone after being told, "We'd like to offer you the job."

Good luck.

(NOTE: As a result of this extremely popular post I continue to get emails from aspiring private bankers. I am happy to reply to them, but I have also decided to add a few books that every future private banker should read. Some of the titles may surprise you, but they all will help you in doing the job).